Maintained at the July 29 meeting; current policy, not a forecast.
U.S. PolicyactiveUnited States / Global markets
Federal Reserve holds rates amid a divided inflation outlook
The FOMC kept its target at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote as June inflation cooled but annual energy prices remained elevated.
Signal score94/100strong evidencehigh assessment confidence
Updated Jul 29, 2026 UTC4 representative sources2 scored claimsSnapshot—not continuous monitoring
Assessment
What the evidence currently supports
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase. June consumer inflation fell sharply month over month, but annual headline inflation and energy prices remained above the Federal Reserve's longer-run inflation objective.
Three dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month; core CPI rose 2.6% over the year.
Change log
What changed
- The FOMC held the target range unchanged for another meeting rather than raising it.
- Three voting members dissented for a quarter-point increase, documenting a sharper internal split.
- June CPI reversed part of the spring increase, led by a 5.7% monthly fall in energy, while energy remained 15.7% higher over the year.
Open questions
What remains uncertain
- The next rate decision cannot be inferred reliably from one divided vote.
- Energy prices remain sensitive to Middle East developments, while tariff pass-through may appear with a lag.
- July CPI was scheduled for August 12 and was not available at the retrieval time.
Transparent scoring
Why this dossier scores 94
Scores summarize the evidence trail; they do not rate people, predict outcomes, or convert a contested event into a truth number.
Evidence quality35% weight
98
Independent corroboration30% weight
94
Recency20% weight
97
Source diversity15% weight
83
Read the scoring method
Evidence quality weighs source authority and directness; corroboration rewards independent agreement; recency reflects how closely sources track the latest material change; source diversity rewards different institutions, geographies, and source classes. The displayed score is the rounded weighted composite: 35%, 30%, 20%, and 15% respectively.
Full scoring methodology →Claim ledger
Claims, scores, and linked evidence
Open a source below to inspect its metadata and evidence note.
01supported99/100
The FOMC voted 9–3 on July 29 to maintain a 3.50%–3.75% target range; the dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
The official FOMC statement records the target, tally and dissenting preference.
02supported99/100
June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months, while core CPI was unchanged for the month and rose 2.6% over the year.
The figures are published in the archived June CPI release and align with the Fed's description of elevated but shifting inflation pressure.
Material developments
Monetary Policy Report submitted
The Fed described elevated inflation, stable labor conditions and uncertainty linked partly to the Middle East conflict.
June CPI released
BLS reported a 0.4% monthly decline and 3.5% twelve-month increase in headline CPI.
FOMC holds rates
The Committee maintained the target range by a 9–3 vote.
Source ledger
Representative source material
Open each record for the evidence note, short permitted extract, full metadata, scoring, and a direct link to the originating page.
S01Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Jul 29, 2026 · primary100Open record
Why it matters
Read full source Primary record for the target range, vote tally, dissents and policy rationale.
S02Monetary Policy Report — July 2026Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Jul 10, 2026 · primary99Open record
Why it matters
Read full source Official assessment of inflation, labor conditions, rates and identified supply shocks.
S03Consumer Price Index — June 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Jul 14, 2026 · primary100Open record
Why it matters
Read full source Primary statistical release for headline, core and energy CPI changes.
S04Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissentsAssociated Press · Jul 29, 2026 · secondary91Open record
Why it matters
Read full source Independent context on the split vote, household borrowing conditions and identified inflation risks.
Signal Ledger does not republish full copyrighted articles. Short extracts are included only when useful for evidence inspection; summaries are original, and the source link is the authoritative location for the full material.